Saturday, October 29, 2022

There are Limits

 So Elon Musk has bought Twitter.  He believes in no limits on speech (maybe).

Here is my story:

Back in the late 1970's, I wrote a newsletter for my racing buddies.  It was drawn from influences like The National Lampoon and Monty Python, amongst others.  It was serious, funny, crazy, satirical, and most of free of moderation.  I would publish anything and encouraged people to send stuff in as I could not write the whole thing myself.  It's zenith was one morning at Bridgehampton race track; when all there, drivers, workers, officials, all sat around reading it instead of getting on with their business.  The silence was golden!

Then one day I got an submission from a friend.  I read it and in today's parlance, I was rolling on the floor laughing.  It was really funny. Then it hit me -  I could not publish it.  One of the stories would literally destroy a person, their reputation and maybe their life.  Just like Calculus, I had come up against a limit.  The words were truth, but I had to decide if this truth belonged in a publication that was supposed to be funny, when the end result would have been anything but.  This lesson at age 22 has stayed with me for 44 years.   To paraphrase Ecclesiastes, "There is a time to publish and a time to hold back".

I was talking about truth.  If Truth has its limits, how much more must a falsehood?  One of my favorite movies is Inherit the Wind.  At the end the Spencer Tracy character says to the reporter "You never push a noun against a verb without trying to blow up something."  Free speech was meant to allow us to move forward, if it does nothing but push us back and destroy, what value has it?

Sunday, October 23, 2022

Economics 101

 To look at all the moving parts in an economy, one way is to take a look from 10,000 feet.  This way we see everything.  Unfortunately, this view does not always allow us to come up with workable solutions to problems, as we can get lost in all the permutations. So let's stop and look at things from a different point of view - the beginning.


We start with a simple supply and demand chart. At any time, Consumers have so much money to spend.  At the same time, Producers have made a product that they wish to sell.  There is initially a negotiation as to the price the Consumer is willing to pay and the Producer is willing to sell at.  So far so good.  

Now we introduce multiple Consumers and multiple Producers.  Eventually, the price will stabilize on what the Consumers are willing to pay and that will force the Producers to sell at that price.  In a stable market, the Producers will work on their productivity to be able to make a profit at that price.  If they cannot, then they might leave the production of that item.  If the other producers can keep making the product at an increased volume, then the price is stable.  If they cannot meet the demand, then the shortage of items will cause the price to increase, as there will be more competition from the Consumers for the fixed quantity of items.  This may cause some Producers to either start or come back in to the market.   Eventually the system will balance out again as demand and supply find their balance.

Now, what if we add an external factor to the equation?  An example is the Government could increase the Producer's cost, by mandating working conditions or manufacturing conditions, such as environmental rules. This will skew the cost up and if it is a product the Consumer must have (food, gasoline, clothing, etc.) the price will rise.  Of course if the price rises too high or too fast, the Consumer may look for alternatives, like keep a  car longer, mending clothes,  or maybe starting their own garden.  Eventually, the price will stabilize again.

Or the Consumer, for whatever reason, decides they MUST have a product.  Think cell phones, Beanie Babies, or Starbucks coffee.  Then their increased demand will also push prices up.  But some of these increases in demand are only temporary - and the price will eventually stabilize.

Of course, the opposite can happen also.  If a product can be made less expensively, the price charged could go down and hopefully the lost profit will be made up by higher volume.  If a Consumer is no longer willing to pay a price for an item, the quality Producers may leave the market to the lower quality Producers.  If the Consumer is satisfied with the inferior product, then the situation will stabilize at the lower price.  The only way the quality of a product will increase is if the Consumer is willing to pay for it (see Mercedes Benz, Rolex watch, or Sirloin steak).

The Government can mandate features, and it can mandate a minimum quality (see food regulations, car standards etc.)  but Producers will just make products to the minimum standards, unless the Consumer is willing to pay more.  

So far we looked at the relationship between the Consumer/Producer and the Government.  Next time we will throw in some other ways the supply/demand chart can be disrupted.

Saturday, October 22, 2022

Say Again?

 

Bannon predicts Attorney General Garland, FBI Director will be impeached

He predicted that Garland and Wray would be impeached and that Republicans would win the House in the upcoming midterm elections.

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/22/steve-bannon-merrick-garland-christopher-wray-impeached-2023

Trump taps Christopher Wray to head FBI

President Donald Trump will nominate Christopher Wray as the next director of the FBI, he announced on Twitter on Wednesday, the day before ousted FBI Director James Comey is to testify at a high-stakes Senate hearing.

“I will be nominating Christopher A. Wray, a man of impeccable credentials, to be the new Director of the FBI. Details to follow,” the president wrote.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/07/trump-fbi-director-nominee-christopher-wray-239238

Trump FBI Pick Christopher Wray No Stranger to Crisis

"He would be very difficult to impeach given his background," says attorney Kurt Kastorf, who worked with Wray at his current law firm, King and Spalding. "He would be fairly difficult for Democrats to drag through the mud, and he's a genuinely qualified and good attorney."

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2017-06-27/trump-fbi-pick-chrisopher-wray-no-stranger-to-crisis