Saturday, March 17, 2012

Peak oil or Peak Economy

After reviewing the statistics on oil reserves and prices, I want to put forth the the following observation:

If US oil production peaked in the 70's, that probably meant that our control over oil ended shortly after that - probably after the fall of the Shah of Iran.  With the loss of control over the price of oil, came the world economic competition we find ourselves in now.  Thus the US "Golden Age" might have passed with this event.

"But we are not out of oil - what about all the oil that is still in the ground?"  There is more oil in the ground, and technology will allow us to recover more and more of that - the question is at what price.  With many other countries having greater known reserves of conventional oil, it is hard to justify spending the money to drill or extract our own oil, unless there was a strategic reason like a world war or embargo (this is the reason for the Strategic Oil Reserve).

Right now energy costs are taking a greater toll of the middle class budget.  Energy cost affect everything from food, to transportation to wages.  The upper class has seen wages and other income climb faster than energy costs so they have not been as affected.  So you can add energy costs to the problems today, along with the decline in unions, technology changes and international competition.  All are related and inseparable.

We will of course attain a sense of balance.  That balance will be a new reality of what makes someone prosperous and economically comfortable.   The struggle will be between forces trying to decide if this balance is natural or has to be legislated.

ChrisZ

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