Thursday, March 02, 2023

Factual Conspiracy or just a good guess...

From Hot Air:

 From this article on Havana Syndrome


“What a strange story this turns out to be if there are in fact no attacks and no hidden weapons. I guess there’s a lesson here about believing something is the result of planning and (hostile) intelligence when in fact that wasn’t the case.”


From this article on the origins of Covid


“Only willful blindness would prevent anybody from at least suspecting that the COVID virus originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.


And by suspecting, I mean believing that the virus’ emergence into the human population likely resulted from a lab leak. Unless the Chinese admit that this is the case we may never have definitive proof, but other scenarios strain credulity.”


Conspiracy Theories are part of Survivor Bias.   You forget the dozens of ones that go away and only remember the ones that either are proven true or those that come anywhere near coming true.  In this case it is just like taking a guess on everything and then claiming knowledge and wisdom if one comes true.  The real test is to keep an accurate score of right and wrong guesses.


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