Saturday, November 24, 2012

We are wealthy

Standing on a street corner - watching cars go by, I realized we are a wealthy country.  The age, quality and condition of our cars shows that.  For the most part we have very new cars in very good condition.  The "rust buckets" and smoking junk I remember in my youth have pretty much been replaced by very efficient safe transportation.  But at what cost?  One of the reasons we are in the predicament we are in today is that most of these nice cars are on credit, borrowed against a future that is not materializing.    30 years ago, you borrowed for a new car, gambling in a sense that inflation would increase the value of your house, the wages your were paid, while making the dollars you paid to your bank cheaper.  However, with inflation at a standstill, wages frozen or dropping and house values plummeting, this system is no longer working.  My feeling is that the cars will start to fall apart, the air conditioners will stop working, cell phones sales will slow down... or maybe we are so addicted to these items that we will stop investing in the future to pay for the present.

ChrisZ


Thursday, November 22, 2012

Achievement

Pros and Cons

Pro - You can be anything in life you want to be

Con - You cannot be everything in life you want to be

ChrisZ

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Were's Woodward

40 years since Watergate - where are the investigative journalists?  Fast and Furious - surely someone in the press can work on finding out the truth.  Wall Street meltdown?  Why are we not flooded with stories from the inside.  Health care law - by now someone could have read it and told us what is in it.

People are lazy - why do I have to do all the work for them?

ChrisZ



PS - Here is one that is getting alot of flack: http://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2012/06/27/fast-and-furious-truth/

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Health Care Debate

I am watching a debate on health care and want to give you two things to think about.  When thinking about then remember virtually all health care is arranged through your work and private instance (like when you buy auto insurance) is virtually non-existent).

Preexisting conditions - this show compared preexisting conditions to a rickety old house vs a new house.  The proper analogy is you loose your house and the insurance company for your new employer refuses to cover you because you have high blood pressure or are overweight.  This would be like the auto insurance companies only deciding that you cannot have coverage after having an accident, whether it was your fault or not.  Having more people in the insurance pool is the purpose of spreading the risk around.

Keeping kids on insurance until they are 26.   The reason for this is not to soak insurance companies, but rather to insure a group that is not in the job place.  Right now, these people get thrown of their parents policy at 21 and unless they are able to get student insurance, often work part time or minimum wage jobs were they cannot get insurance.  Both of my children are are under 26 but have found a way to be insured, but if they were unemployed then how would they get coverage?  This is not free, the parents have to have them on a family policy and and pay extra.  Since young people have lower claims for the most part this is where insurance companies may be making more money - money that can balance out the older population.

So think twice when you here people talking about health care reform and how some of these changes are detrimental the people they are trying to help.

BTW: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/14/business/14health.html?_r=1

ChrisZ

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Who volunteers?

Now that I am on the road working, it has given me a new perspective on who volunteers. When I was a Cub Scout leader, Little League coach, Religious Education teacher, I was always frustrated in getting more volunteers. I think I have the answer. In the 50's and 60's most people workedm either in factories or offices. They worked normal 9 - 5 jobs and were home for dinner. This was the peak time for volunteers. People worked 40 hour weeks and had spare time. Today, with downsizing and technology, people are working odd hours and are always reachable. People cannot dedicate the time to volunteering when they don't know when they will have free time. We are either going to have to change our expectations on traditional volunteer jobs, or change our economic system to accommodate them. Ironically, it was predicted that by this time we would all be working less than 40 hours and flex time would allow us to participate more in activities serving our communities. Stop and think about when you were growing up and will your children and grand children have the same experiences. Chris Z

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Why there is more oil drilling

Times Article:

"And not just here. Across the country, the oil and gas industry is vastly increasing production, reversing two decades of decline. Using new technology and spurred by rising oil prices since the mid-2000s, the industry is extracting millions of barrels more a week, from the deepest waters of the Gulf of Mexico to the prairies of North Dakota."


"At the same time, Americans are pumping significantly less gasoline. While that is partly a result of the recession and higher gasoline prices, people are also driving fewer miles and replacing older cars with more fuel-efficient vehicles at a greater clip, federal data show."


"How the country made this turnabout is a story of industry-friendly policies started by President Bush and largely continued by President Obama — many over the objections of environmental advocates — as well as technological advances that have allowed the extraction of oil and gas once considered too difficult and too expensive to reach. But mainly it is a story of the complex economics of energy, which sometimes seems to operate by its own rules of supply and demand."


The higher the price of oil, and the more stable that price is, the more technology and investments will go find that oil that was either abandoned or perceived too expensive to recover.


ChrisZ

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Peak oil or Peak Economy

After reviewing the statistics on oil reserves and prices, I want to put forth the the following observation:

If US oil production peaked in the 70's, that probably meant that our control over oil ended shortly after that - probably after the fall of the Shah of Iran.  With the loss of control over the price of oil, came the world economic competition we find ourselves in now.  Thus the US "Golden Age" might have passed with this event.

"But we are not out of oil - what about all the oil that is still in the ground?"  There is more oil in the ground, and technology will allow us to recover more and more of that - the question is at what price.  With many other countries having greater known reserves of conventional oil, it is hard to justify spending the money to drill or extract our own oil, unless there was a strategic reason like a world war or embargo (this is the reason for the Strategic Oil Reserve).

Right now energy costs are taking a greater toll of the middle class budget.  Energy cost affect everything from food, to transportation to wages.  The upper class has seen wages and other income climb faster than energy costs so they have not been as affected.  So you can add energy costs to the problems today, along with the decline in unions, technology changes and international competition.  All are related and inseparable.

We will of course attain a sense of balance.  That balance will be a new reality of what makes someone prosperous and economically comfortable.   The struggle will be between forces trying to decide if this balance is natural or has to be legislated.

ChrisZ

Thursday, March 15, 2012

The lost art of communication

As technology gives us more ways to talk to each other, I wonder if it is having just the opposite. Instant messaging, e-mails, texting, Facebook - maybe the only technology that actually enhances communication is face to face conversation like Skype and Facetime.

Consider the other forms of communication - words with no sound, no meaning, no inflection.  No reading of the other person's facial expression or body language. How much misinterpretation comes from reading an e-mail and assuming you understand the person's intentions.

As we text and twitter, we are in such a hurry to get our message out, that we don't spend the time to choose the correct words, or write in complete sentences so that we can properly communicate.

How are you using the new tools to communicate?  Are they having the intended effect?

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Trip to Chicago Auto Show

Things I learned from my trip to the Chicago Auto Show:
1. Metra stations - you do pay for parking - $1.50 a day - remember your parking number
2. Train stations are not open on weekends for the most part so you end up buying tickets on the train (weekend pass is $7.00 in 2012)
3. Buses are tough to understand - Chicago streets are no like NYC - I looked for the AutoShow shuttle and followed the crowd - $2.25 (exact change for the bus unless you get a transit card. NOW I find out the CTA machine was in the Metra Ticket area in Union Station. You can order on line - just need to order 10 days in advance.
4. After show, the shuttle is at one of the gates underneath - don't go outside and try to find the bus.
5. The ride home on the train - get there early to get a seat down in the lower level.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

D$@&/:?(:/

Curse words are nothing new. The problem today is that they are used so commonly that they lose their meaning and just become obnoxious.

During the 60's and 70's certain words had an enhanced effect. When they were used, you realized the seriousness of their use. Now, these 4 letter words are thrown out like salt on the ice, random and more than is probably needed.

As words losse their meaning, something else has to take it's place. I am not sure the physical violence is directly related, but once at a loss for words,
Maybe the only thing left is physical.

Saturday, December 31, 2011

Hot Air strikes again

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/12/30/another-obama-donor-convicted-of-fraud/

From a news story:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/senior-managers-of-gdc-acquisitions-holding-company-charged-in-brooklyn-ny-with-bank-fraud-conspiracy-99138264.html

"This case was brought in coordination with President Barack Obama's Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force. President Obama established the interagency Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force to wage an aggressive, coordinated, and proactive effort to investigate and prosecute financial crimes. The task force includes representatives from a broad range of federal agencies, regulatory authorities, inspectors general, and state and local law enforcement who, working together, bring to bear a powerful array of criminal and civil enforcement resources. The task force is working to improve efforts across the federal executive branch, and with state and local partners, to investigate and prosecute significant financial crimes, ensure just and effective punishment for those who perpetrate financial crimes, combat discrimination in the lending and financial markets, and recover proceeds for victims of financial crimes."

Wednesday, October 05, 2011

The New(est) Party

We have the Green Party and the Libertarian Party, the Conservative Party and many others (yes, even the American Communist Party).  Now we have two more, one maturing and one just getting started.

The Tea Party has been around for a few years. It seems to have started out with the cry, "What about me!" (1) and has morphed into more specific creeds.  Constitutionality. smaller government, less taxes.  It has not been absorbed by the Republican Party but rather attached more like a Siamese Twin.

The 99 Percent Movement is just starting out.  It's rallying cry is "What about me!" - wait - where have I heard that before??  It is coming from the Left but it is not happy any more with the establishment left, just as the Tea Party is not happy with the establishment Right.

So what do we have?  I think the initial movement on both sides is a reaction from the radical right and left.  As the movements mature, they tone down the rhetoric and develop game plans.  As this gets out they start picking up people who are are closer to the center.  All movements by their nature become more centrist in order to keep attracting new followers.  Where will the 99 Percent end up? I don't know - but I do know they need a better name.

==============================================

(1)  For those who think the Tea Party is not the "about me" party - here are some links to peruse - two from definitely conservative sites.  Rick Santelli's (former hedge fund manager) rant asks "who wants to pay for your neighbors mortgage, who has an extra bathroom and can't pay their bills?"  Well if you got rich on taking your neighbor's money when YOU knew he could not pay his bills, then maybe you should.....he was railing against the Homeowners Affordability and Stability Plan - not the stimulus by the way.  Ironically, if the government had focused on solving the mortgage problem, maybe jobs would have appeared and we would not be in this mess today...

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/258258/short-history-tea-parties

Look at the signs on this site:
http://michellemalkin.com/2009/04/15/a-tax-day-tea-party-cheat-sheet-how-it-all-started/

http://www.slate.com/articles/video/slate_v/2010/11/the_history_of_the_tea_party_in_four_minutes.html

Sunday, September 18, 2011

If I hear this one more time....

I am getting tired of hearing "The wealthy already pay too much in taxes - most people pay nothing at all....."

Okay, the wealthy do pay most of the FEDERAL income taxes in this country.  Never mind that when it comes to disposable income, most people who consider themselves middle class pay more taxes that the wealthy, when you throw in sales, payroll, state, property and other misc taxes.

But forget about that.  How do we get the tax burden off of the wealthy and back on the middle class where the numbers are much larger?  Well, let's say that there are 140 million tax payers (returns) in 2008.  The top 1 percent equal about 1.4 million of this.  That leaves 138.6 million others.  Now let's assume the top 1% pay $392.1 billion in income tax paid in 2008.  If you were to take 50 million of the others and they had to just equal the $392.1 billion, that would mean they would have to pay $7840 in taxes.   In going back to the 2010 tax tables, that means an adjusted income of $45,000.  Now assuming normal deductions, that would be about $55,000 in income for an individual.  That is about $26. per hour.  So if you want the wealthy to stop paying to much, all you have to do is create 50 million jobs that pay over $26. per hour.  More that three and a half times the minimum wage. 

Got any ideas???

ChrisZ

The Basis of the Economy

Some people question why I feel there should be higher taxes on the wealthy, even if temporarily.

Well try to follow this:

For years we have been an ultra-consumer society.  We bought beyond our means.  Some of this was greed, some of this was advertising.  Some of it was trying to keep up with the Joneses.  Some was pushed on us (remember one way were supposed to react after 9/11 was to go out and keep buying things like nothing had happened...) and some we brought upon ourselves (I deserve a new car). 

So we kept spending.  We ran up credit card debt, home equity debt, we even borrowed from our 401K to make ends meet.  Yes the economy did well - but it was all based on a bill that had to come due soon.  So, the companies had their money - right from the bank - but where did the bank get it?  From the IOUs that we gave them.  When the day of judgment came and we decided we didn't want to spend anymore, the house of cards came down.  When we decided to keep that car one more year and not buy a new one, auto sales dropped.  When we decided the house we were in was big enough, new home sales stopped.  When we decided to stay home rather than go out to eat, restaurant sales slowed.  In each business, less sales equaled less workers needed.  Less workers means less people with money and less sales.  And the spiral begins.

Now when does it stop?  When all the debt accumulated gets paid down, written off,  or blown away.  When people, not businesses, feel comfortable in spending money again and then instead of a downward spiral, you have a climbing flight.

Now how can the wealthy help?  Well the reason they have the money is that we traded it for debt.  Now depending on who you feel is right or wrong will determine your solution to the problem.  But anyway you look at it, if money does not move from the wealthy to the debtors, the economy will not grow.  How and  why is not for this post.  But somehow we have to figure out how to do it.

ChrisZ

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Solyndra - Putting the Puzzle together

I am still trying to put together the pieces of this puzzle together but here is what people want me to believe:

The President - in an attempt to reward one of his campaign donors, forces the DOE to loan 500 million taxpayer dollars to a company that they know will go bankrupt, thus costing the government (taxpayers) and the investors (campaign donor) millions of dollars of losses.  This will discredit the Solar Energy Industry, and at the same time end up giving tax credits to the (campaign donor) who's fortune derives from the oil industry.

How Machiavellian!  And you claim that the President is a Socialist Liberal, when this proves in fact that he is a capitalistic stooge!  Wow!

Here are some things to watch for:

"Under terms of the February loan restructuring, two private investors - Madrone Partners LP and Kaiser's Argonaut Ventures I LLC - stand to be repaid before the U.S. government if the solar company is liquidated.

The two firms gave Solyndra a total of $69 million in emergency loans. The loans are the only portion of their investments that have repayment priority above the U.S. government.


Argonaut is an investment vehicle of the Tulsa-based George Kaiser Family Foundation. Through Argonaut, the foundation holds a 39 percent stake in Solyndra.

George Kaiser, chairman of BOK Financial Corp., raised between $50,000 and $100,000 for Obama's 2008 campaign, federal election records show. Kaiser has made at least 16 visits to the president's aides since 2009, according to White House visitor logs.

Madrone Partners is affiliated with the Walton family, descendants of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton. Rob Walton, the eldest son of Sam Walton, contributed $2,500 last year to the National Republican Congressional Committee."



http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/article.aspx?subjectid=592&articleid=20110917_49_E1_WASHIN711341


So $69 million is ahead of the $535 million of taxpayers money.  Should no be a problem with a company that might be worth a at least $500 million - right?  Not if the first companies buy the full assets under a fire sale which might happen.  This needs to be followed - not to find any scandal, but rather to see how money makes money and tries to make a silk purse out of a sows ear....

There will be incompetence and criminality if you look for it.  It will not rise to the level of an Enron or TRW (if it does it shows that businessmen are the most ego oriented people [It can't happen to me!]  and that we need more regulation not less.)

So keep watching and take it all in but don't expect it to prove anything - on either side.

ChrisZ

Sunday, August 07, 2011

A Place to Start

They say the longest journey begins with the first step.  Everyone is looking for that ONE idea to fix the economy.  The partisan bickering is keeping us from accomplishing anything.  So let's set up some guidelines for National Policy:

The priorities of any law should be:
1. National Defense
2. Immediate Environmental Damage
3. American Economy (jobs)

All expenditures that don't meet these criteria should be suspended (not repealed) for 5 years.

All elected officials will take a 10% salary cut - I know this is mostly symbolic to them but isn't that the definition of what symbolic is?

There will be a temporary tax surcharge on those making over $500,000.

$500,000   +1%
$1,000,000  + 2%
10,000,000  +3%

Capitol Gains for individuals will go up to the level of income tax for individuals in 3, 1 year steps.

Capitol Gains for business owned by more than 3 people will drop 5%  and a tax credit issued for the amount put back into the business to employ workers - not to buy machines.

Money for the arts will be cut to the amount it does not directly employ people and at a rate no more than $100,000 per worker.  This is no money to employ a $1,000,000 head of a non profit art organization.

Home interest deduction is to be caped at $25,000 per year per family.

Medical deduction capped at 8% of income with no minimum.

The Military budget will be cut by 20% and 50% of that money put aside for the health care of our current and past servicemen and women.

Taxpayers will have to pay Social Security taxes on the first $150,000 of salary up from the current $107,000, and all income is calculated against your SS earnings limit.  The government has to freeze borrowing against the SS fund and start returning 1% per year to the fund.

Able-bodied welfare recipients will be required to spend up to 50% (20 hours) per week performing assigned work.  The government will have the ability to overrule union regulations as long as the additional workers do not affect the working hours of the existing workers too less that 40 hours.  Any company that hires a person currently on welfare would be eligible for a tax credit for one year,  up to the amount the person would have received in welfare had they stayed on.  The person would be subject to all the responsibilities of any other employee - so special consideration.

This is just a start of what can be done - we need people with ideas to get us out of this problem, not fight over who got us in.

ChrisZ

Saturday, July 09, 2011

Raise you hand if you agree

Well we are 2 1/2 years into President Obama's term.

What has he and his administration done right:
1. Pretty much reestablished our credibility or at least acceptability around the world.
2. Got Osama bin Laden and working on dismantling Al Qaeda.
3. Rescued the American car manufacturers.
4. Gotten health care reform going (although see below)
5. Gotten serious discussion going on the economy.

Now, what he has done wrong:
1. Gave health care to Congress to screw up - so instead of a national health care plan supported by a national sales tax, we end up with a convoluted system balancing on a future Supreme Court ruling on the individual mandate.
2. Took his eye off the tax code - When the Bush tax cuts expired, he should have changed the brackets and raised taxes on the top earners.  This would not have solved the deficit (although it would help) but would have restored faith in the average man that the President is not just a puppet of corporations and Wall Street.
Instead, we will end up in the same place we started, with the rich getting richer though no effort on their part.
3. Gave in on the stimulus and did not direct enough money to reforming he housing crisis.  The little tax break that dominated 1/3 of the stimulus did nothing, and the money to infrastructure did  little on the money spent per job created chart.  We forget that today, infrastructure repairs are done with big machinery and not many laborers.

So what can he do in the second part of his term?

If he lets the deficit ceiling deal go off without a plan to increase revenue  from the wealthy and the big corporations, then he is doomed.   How do you cut social services, when so many of your constituents need to be on them???  

What we need is a 5 and 10 year plan, that can be modified as we go along, in order to reinvent our economy to what will be needed in the technology age.

He will have to open up a discussion of immigration  - he has to take a bold step in 2012 whether it helps or hurts his election changes.

He needs to bring a substantial number of soldiers home (disclaimer - I have a son who should be deployed in 2012 - I would stick to this even if he ended up in Montana....) and reduce the amount we are spending on foreign wars and end the hidden costs.  We are still losing many brave, young men and women and too many are coming back injured.  Maybe some of the money form the higher taxes on the wealthy can be  invested in our returning veterans, as they have made it possible for this increased wealth.

ChrisZ





Friday, June 10, 2011

Friday, February 11, 2011

Chris's Law #1

Chris's Law # 1 is:

Never update the Operating System a computer comes with. You will never recover the time involved in increased productivity. If you need a new operating system, you need a new computer.

Friday, November 05, 2010

How do you create wealth?

There was a post on another site on how wealth is created.

Well, let's try MY explanation:

Wealth = Money x Time x Effort x Knowledge

Now the neat thing about Money, Time, Effort and Knowledge is that it does not have to be yours!

A business owner makes money off the effort of others. A stock broker uses knowledge to make money for others. Someone who inherits money and invests it over time also can become wealthy.

The problem that I see is what if people don't have access to the basic formula. If someone does not have access to knowledge then they cannot develop wealth. Or if some one has special access to money, they are ahead of the game. Too much of today's economic war is keeping people from the tools to create wealth, rather than improving your own situation.

The old saw that money makes money is probably truer today than ever before. The question is how do we restore the balance so everyone at least has access to the formula. If we admit that is not possible, where do we go from here?

ChrisZ